In an affirmation of its political muscle, President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) achieved a clean sweep in Thursday’s by-elections, capturing all four contested seats across Isiolo, Embu, and Kakamega counties.
The victories, marked by comfortable margins despite low voter turnout, underscore UDA’s organisational prowess and growing appeal in diverse regions, providing a timely morale boost for Ruto and his allies as the 2027 general elections loom.
The by-elections, held on February 26, filled one parliamentary seat and three ward positions left vacant due to various reasons, including the deaths of incumbents.
In Isiolo South Constituency, UDA’s Mohamed Tubi triumphed with 7,352 votes, decisively outpacing his sister Bina Tubi, an independent candidate who garnered only 634 votes. This sibling rivalry highlighted local dynamics but ultimately favoured UDA’s structured campaign.
In Embu County’s Mbeere North, the party secured both Evurore Ward, where Duncan Muratia won with 7,853 votes, and Muminji Ward, claimed by Peterson Njeru with 3,207 votes.
Rounding out the sweep, Elphas Shalakha clinched the West Kabras Ward seat in Kakamega County with 3,317 votes, a notable incursion into what was once considered opposition-leaning territory in Western Kenya.
These results build on UDA’s previous electoral successes, marking the second consecutive round of by-elections where the ruling party has dominated.
Political observers note that the wins reflect effective grassroots mobilisation and a focus on development agendas, such as infrastructure and economic reforms, which appear to resonate with voters even amid economic challenges.
Implications for Ruto and His Allies
For President Ruto, these victories are more than symbolic; they reinforce his narrative of a “silent majority” backing his administration’s policies.
“ Thank you Isiolo South, West Kabras, Muminji, and Evurore for standing firmly with the United Democratic Alliance in yesterday’s by-elections. We are firmly on course to building a solid national political party whose vision goes beyond generations as we move Kenya to the first-world,” Ruto said following the results.
The clean sweep, particularly in the Mount Kenya region, a key battleground that propelled him to power in 2022, signals continued loyalty from this influential bloc.
UDA’s ability to penetrate Kakamega, traditionally aligned with opposition figures like the late Prime Minister Raila Odinga, suggests expanding influence in Western Kenya, potentially eroding historical strongholds and broadening Ruto’s coalition.
Allies within UDA, including Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and other party stalwarts, will likely see this as validation of their aggressive campaigning and resource allocation.
Social media reactions from UDA supporters emphasise the party’s “organisational strength” and “grassroots energy,” with posts celebrating the wins as evidence of a “development agenda inspiring confidence.”
This momentum could strengthen internal party unity, deterring potential defections and bolstering fundraising efforts ahead of 2027.
Moreover, the results enhance Ruto’s bargaining power in national politics. With UDA now controlling additional seats in Parliament and county assemblies, the president can push legislative priorities more effectively, from budget allocations to reforms in devolved governance.
Analysts argue this positions Ruto favourably for re-election, as by-elections often serve as barometers for national sentiment.
Setback for the United Opposition
On the flip side, the United Opposition brining together Rigathi Gachagua, Fred Matiangi, Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua and Justin Muturi faces a stark reality check.
Despite vocal campaigns and predictions of upsets, opposition candidates were resoundingly defeated, with some polling fewer than 1,000 votes.
This outcome highlights challenges in voter mobilisation and message cohesion, especially in regions where economic grievances could have been leveraged against the ruling party.
Low turnout, reported across all polling stations, may indicate voter apathy or disillusionment with opposition strategies, which critics describe as “hype that turns into moto wa gazeti” (flame of the newspaper—meaning short-lived sensationalism).
Public sentiment on various social platforms echoes this, with users questioning the opposition’s preparedness and advising a need to “regroup” after losing all seats.
For the United Opposition, these losses underscore the urgency of revitalising their base. The opposition must address internal divisions, craft a compelling alternative vision, and invest in ground-level organization to counter UDA’s dominance. Failure to do so risks further marginalisation, potentially handing Ruto an easier path to a second term.
Broader Political Landscape and 2027 Outlook
These by-elections, though small in scale, offer insights into Kenya’s evolving political dynamics. UDA’s cross-regional appeal demonstrates a shift toward issue-based voting over ethnic mobilisation, though traditional loyalties still play a role.
With just over a year until the 2027 polls, Ruto’s camp can capitalise on this momentum to consolidate alliances and address pressing issues like inflation and youth unemployment.
However, challenges remain: Economic headwinds and public dissatisfaction with certain policies could still sway voters. For the opposition, this defeat is a wake-up call to innovate and unite.
In the end, Thursday’s results affirm UDA’s current supremacy, but Kenyan politics is notoriously fluid. The real test lies in sustaining this edge through tangible governance gains.
