Kenya’s most consequential politician, Former Prime Minister and ODM leader Raila Odinga, was buried on Sunday in a highly charged political burial.
This funeral, however, was not just a rite of passage; it formally opened the battle for ODM and its political direction, a contest first triggered by Raila’s move to work with President Ruto and his African Union Commission aspirations.
Raila, who died at the age of 80 while undergoing treatment in India, was buried at his family home in Bondo next to his mother, Mary, father, Jaramogi and son, Fidel.
After the clergy from the Anglican Church were done with the Christian rituals, the funeral turned into a political arena with ODM politics after Raila taking centre stage.
In the midst of it all, three political statements were made by various speakers, which are set to shape the Kenyan political scene ahead of the 2027 elections.
These declarations outline the party’s two competing futures; aligning with the pro-government coalition versus preserving its party integrity legacy.
Raila’s funeral, while a personal tragedy, became a political clearing house.
The declarations confirmed that the battle for ODM’s future will be fought on two main fronts: internal control, the contest between the ‘Broad-Based Government’ and ‘Legacy/Party Integrity’ factions, and external political alignment – the decision of whether to pursue a coalition with UDA for the 2027 general election..
‘I am ready to come back home’
The first political statement was made by Raila’s daughter, Winnie Odinga, who is a Kenyan legislator at the East African Legislative Assembly in Arusha.
Winnie, while turning to face President Ruto, hinted that she was actively following in her father’s footsteps by joining local politics.
“Your Excellency, our people appreciate you honouring our father. Thank you for standing with us. You should also know, in case you are wondering, I am ready to come back home,” she said.
While Raila’s children have not actively been involved in his politics, his son Junior and daughter Winnie, have worked within his campaign secretariats, though mostly behind the scenes.
Winnie’s declaration might therefore not be a surprise to many, but it is a significant move into the post-Raila leadership vacuum.
Positioning a younger Odinga as a potential alternative to the older generation of contenders, her comment to Ruto solidifies the idea of an emerging UDA-Odinga family alliance.
It signals her readiness to work with the Head of State, picking up from the cooperation plans Ruto mentioned they had been working on with Raila over the last three months. This move could alter the dynamics within ODM, a party her father co-founded and led for 20 years.
‘Raila’s Broad-based Instructions’
The second political statement, which was echoed several times by other speakers, came from Homabay Governor Gladys Wanga, who is also the current ODM chairperson.
Wanga, a close ally of the Odingas and Ruto, made it clear that ODM would not allow a few individuals to scuttle Raila’s plan for the party.
This statement set the stage for visible cracks in one of Kenya’s largest and oldest parties, explicitly defining two opposing factions.
“Raila gave us clear instructions that we are in the broad-based government… wewe DJ usilete mchanganyiko (DJ don’t bring confusion,” she said.
The DJ statement had been made by Raila during a January 2022 presidential campaign rally in Kakamega after the person cueing the music played the wrong tune.
Several ODM leaders, including Secretary General Edwin Sifuna have publicly opposed the broad-based government which followed an agreement between Ruto and Raila.
When Sifuna stood up to speak, he termed the remarks by Wanga as “clear” provocation, saying that in his public speech, Raila asked them who had told them that the party had decided to support Ruto’s re-election.
In the meeting, Sifuna talked about, Raila urged party members not to get into discussions that hadn’t been agreed upon and mentioned that no one has said that ODM would not have a candidate on 2027.
“Even in the face of open provocation, Baba, you know what I’m talking about. ODM is one of your biggest legacies, Baba. I, as Sifuna, will do everything in my power to keep this party together,” he said.
This declaration by Sifuna did not go down well with those who spoke after him. In addition to this, Raila did not run on an ODM ticket in the last three elections.
In 2013, Raila ran under CORD Coalition, in 2017 under NASA Coalition and in 2022 under Azimio Coalition.
While some, like Siaya Governor James Orengo took a more diplomatic approach on the ODM politics, others, like Mining CS Hassan Joho and his Treasury counterpart John Mbadi, were bullish.
Joho warned that those who wanted to disintegrate the party should be prepared to be kicked out.
“ODM members, the party is going nowhere. The party will not break. The values and principles of the party were placed in my heart by Raila. Whoever imagines they can break the party, they are the ones we shall chase away. If you try to break the party, you are the one who will leave. The party is here to stay,” Joho said.
Ruto, who was the last to speak, vowed to protect ODM from leaders seeking to destroy it from within, promising to honour the late Raila’s legacy by preserving the strength and integrity of his political party.
“The thing I cannot accept, in honour of this hero of ours, and I will do everything possible, may God help me, to block those who want to uproot the ODM party and play the opposition card out there. That will not be possible,” Ruto said.
Ruto has his own political party, UDA, which is the main party in the Kenya Kwanza government, but has connections with ODM, where he was among the founding members in 2005 and part of the then Pentagon that was led by Raila.
The battle for ODM is likely to intensify with the younger generation of its leadership going against the more senior members or leaving the party altogether ahead of 2027.
‘In Government… or The Government’
Linked to this, the third declaration made by Mombasa Governor Abdullswamad Nassir, who is also one of the ODM Deputy Party Leaders hinted at what could shape the 2027 election contest.
The Governor said that Raila, in his wisdom, guided them into the broad-based government alongside Ruto.
“I assure you, Baba, that we did not betray you in life, and we will not betray you in death. We will continue to support the broad-based government. There are only two things. ODM will not be in opposition in 2027. We will either be in government or we will be the government,” Nassir said.
This statement was repeated two more times by Ruto and Minority Leader in the National Assembly Junet Mohammed.
Junet insisted that in the last public event where they met Raila, the late Party Leader asked them to remain united and stay in the broad-based government.
“Therefore, ODM will either form government or will be in a coalition that will form government. But ODM will not be in a coalition comprising leaders who used to insult Baba. For the legacy of Baba, we have agreed to implement the NADCO report fully,” Junet said.
On his part, Ruto said that as the country goes into the 2027, ODM must be strong because that is how they would have a strong government. He added that political parties are the foundation of democracy, and the strength of ODM matters a great deal to him.
“ODM is today part and parcel of the Government of the Republic of Kenya and ODM will either form the next government or be part of it,” Ruto said.
The import of this repeated statement is that beyond the cooperation agreement between UDA and ODM, the two parties are looking at putting together a coalition for Ruto’s re-election.
However, the critical question remains: Can a coalition based on an agreement with a deceased leader, and opposed by a faction within the party, be successfully marshalled for a 2027 election?
With Raila out of the picture, it remains to be seen whether his brother Oburu, the acting party leader, will marshal the party into the pro-government formation.
